Where emissions targets actually stand

In August 2025 I pulled together a research base on global emissions targets, meant as the foundation for an interactive learning tool. The headline is uncomfortable but useful: momentum is real, and the gap is large.

The gap

• Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record of about 53 GtCO2e in 2023, according to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024.
• Limiting warming to 1.5°C requires roughly 42% cuts by 2030 and 57% by 2035, against 2019 levels.
• Full delivery of current national pledges still points to roughly 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming.

Concentration

A handful of countries account for most emissions. China, the United States and India lead in absolute terms, with the EU close behind. That makes their policies decisive, and makes their supply chains the place where product-level data matters most. National pledges are public in the UNFCCC NDC registry, and Climate Action Tracker rates them independently.

Companies are moving faster than many governments

Thousands of companies now have validated targets through the Science Based Targets initiative, and CDP scores more than 20,000. But comprehensive Scope 3 coverage is rare, and Scope 3 is exactly where product and supplier data are missing.

Sectors

Energy is the largest source. Industry, especially steel and cement, is the hardest to abate, with process emissions that efficiency alone cannot remove. Buildings are a small share of direct emissions but much larger once electricity is counted, which is why construction EPDs carry so much weight. The IEA's net zero pathway lays out what each sector needs.

Why a PM cares

Targets set at a national level end up as procurement requirements, supplier questionnaires and data fields in someone's product. Free data from Climate Watch and Net Zero Tracker makes it possible to build tools that show that path. The explorer remains a concept.